Environment Counts | Country and Regional Transport GHG Emission Trends
Author: Wendy Aritenang – Published At: 2012-01-28 09:58 – (914 Reads)
Transport-sector CO2 emissions represent 22.5% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2008. The corresponding figures for OECD and Non-OECD countries are 30% and 16%, respectively. The sector accounts for approximately 15% of overall greenhouse gas emissions. Global CO2 emissions from transport have grown by 44% from 1990 to 2008, led by emissions from the road sector in terms of volume and by shipping and aviation in terms of highest growth rates. Under â€œbusiness-as-usualâ€, including many planned efficiency improvements, global CO2 emissions from transport are expected to continue to grow by approximately 40% from 2007 to 2030 â€“ though this is lower than pre-crisis estimates.
Some countries (e.g. France, Germany and Japan) stand out in that they have seen their road CO2 emissions stabilise or decrease even before the recession of 2008-2009 despite economic and road freight growth over the same period.
The economic crisis of 2008 has led to a prolonged downturn in economic activity and has had a significant impact on CO2 emission rates. Data from 2008 show the rate of growth of global CO2 emissions dropping off from historic yearly growth rates. This slow-down is due to a nearly 3% drop in OECD emissions from 2007 to 2008. Non-OECD emissions in 2008 slowed but were still significantly over the 1990-2008 average.
Some projections for 2008-2009 emissions foresee a drop in global CO2 emissions of 3% to 10% while others note that evidence is mounting for a less severe reduction with global CO2 emissions essentially stabilising at 2008 levels due to continued growth in non-OECD economies. There is early evidence that the rate of CO2 emissions in non-OECD and certain key OECD countries may be back on track to reach historic average growth rates. Depending on the strength of the economic recovery, this reduction may translate into a 0 to 8% decrease in 2020 emissions from their pre-crisis projected levels.
Global transport sector CO2 emissions have essentially stabilised at their 2008 levels as have global CO2 emissions from road transport. Emissions from domestic aviation have dropped the most sharply representing the early impacts of the economic crisis in the United States which accounts for a significant share of global emissions from that sub-sector.
Within OECD economies, CO2 emissions from transport have fallen by nearly 4% from 2007 to 2008 and all transport sub-sectors have seen emissions fall as a result of the crisis except for international aviation. Within non-OECD economies, transport-related CO2 emissions have continued to register strong growth from 2007- 2008 with the exception of the rail sector.