Environment Counts | Increased probability that global warming is due to anthropogenic causes
Author: Geoff Zeiss – Published At: 2011-12-04 20:43 – (857 Reads)
Using an novel approach, it is shown that known changes in the global energy balance and in radiative forcing tightly constrain the magnitude of anthropogenic warming to about 0.56â€‰Â°C. The GHG induced warming is extremely unlikely, less than 5% probability, to be caused by internal variability.
The observed trends are extremely unlikely, less than 5% probability, to be caused by internal variability, even if current models were found to strongly underestimate it. The method used in this article is complementary to optimal fingerprinting attribution and produces consistent results, thus suggesting an even higher confidence that human-induced causes dominate the observed warming.